Publications

Bosnia

Escaping the first circle of hell or the secret behind Bosnian reforms

10 Mar 2016

One popular idea about Bosnia and Herzegovina among European observers is that Newton's first law of motion applies to its politics: this law says that an object at rest will stay at rest unless acted upon by an outside force. For Bosnian politics, that outside force has to be the international community.

Bosnia

Bijeg iz prvog kruga pakla ili tajna iza reformi u Bosni i Hercegovini

10 Mar 2016

Među europskim promatračima Bosne i Hercegovine (BiH) popularna je ideja o primjeni prvog Newtonovog zakona kretanja na bh. politiku. Ovaj zakon kaže će tijelo ostati u stanju mirovanja sve dok neka vanjska sila ne dovede do promjene tog stanja. Za bh. politiku ta vanjska sila mora biti međunarodna zajednica.

Montenegro

Montenegro: Germany's Balkan stipends – Asylum and the Rozaje exodus

19 Jan 2016

Nobody knows exactly how many thousands of people left northern Montenegro in the first half of 2015. When local civic organisations first sounded the alarm early in the year, some tried to count families with luggage getting onto buses to Germany. The national government in Podgorica first denied that anything remarkable was going on. In cafés in Montenegro’s North people began to speculate about the exodus. Some ominously recalled how the Ottomans took away healthy boys in the past: was Germany interested in attracting Montenegrin children as modern-day Janissaries? Others suspected a plot to change the ethnic balance, since most of the people who left were Bosniaks (Muslim Slavs).

Montenegro

Montenegro: Deutschlands Balkanstipendien – Asyl und der Rozaje-Exodus

19 Jan 2016

Niemand weiß genau wie viele tausend Menschen den Norden Montenegros in der ersten Jahreshälfte 2015 verlassen haben. Als NGOs vor Ort Anfang des Jahres Alarm schlugen, versuchten einige, die Familien zu zählen, die mit größerem Gepäck Busse nach Deutschland bestiegen. Die Regierung in Podgorica stritt vorerst ab, dass irgendetwas Ungewöhnliches vor sich ginge. In den Cafés in Montenegros Norden begann man, über den Exodus zu spekulieren. Einige erinnerten sich, wie die Osmanen in der Vergangenheit junge Knaben entführt hatten: war Deutschland daran interessiert, montenegrinische Kinder als moderne Janitscharen anzulocken? Andere vermuteten eine Verschwörung mit dem Ziel, das ethnische Gleichgewicht zu verändern, da die meisten Abwandernden Bosniaken (muslimische Slaven) waren.

Migration

Ayrıntıda Gizlenen Şeytan

25 Dec 2015

Önümüzdeki gün ve haftalarda geliştirilip düzeltilmediği takdirde, bu metin başarısızlığa mahkûm. AB’ye Türkiye’den gelen mülteci sayısı azalmayacak İki taraf da birbirini suçlamaya başlayacak. Hayâl kırıklığı ve gerginlik zaten var olan karşılıklı güven bunalımını körükleyecek. Çok mühim bir zaman dilimi de böylece boşa harcanacak.

Greece

Berlin initiative - Resolving the Aegean refugee crisis in early 2016

8 Dec 2015

If current trends continue, the number of people who reach Germany from Turkey (via Greece) will not go down significantly in the first months of 2016. To change this, the EU expects Turkey to do three things which are all costly, difficult and unpopular.
 

Migration

The devil in the detail - Why the EU-Turkey deal will fail and how to get to a deal that works

29 Nov 2015

Unless this deal is substantially improved in the coming days and weeks, it simply sets the stage for failure. The influx of refugees coming into the EU from Turkey will not abate. Both sides will then blame each other. Frustration will erode already dangerously low levels of trust. Precious time will have been wasted.

Migration

Yunanistan için “güvenli üçüncü ülke” olarak Türkiye

17 Oct 2015

“Güvenli üçüncü ülke” başka ülke uyruklu sığınmacılar için güvenli olan ülke demek. ESI’nin teklifi Suriye, Irak, Afganistan ve diğer bazı ülkelerden gelen sığınmacılar açısından Türkiye’nin güvenli ülke olarak addedilmesi temeline oturuyor. Böylece Yunanistan bu ülkelerin vatandaşlarını hak ve güvenliklerini tehlikeye atmadan Türkiye’ye geri gönderebilecek. Akabinde, Ege’yi geçen bot sayısında hızlı bir düşüş yaşanacak çünkü Yunanistan’a ulaşanlar Türkiye tarafından geri alınacağı için bu tehlikeli yolculuk anlamını yitirmiş olacak.

Migration

Turkey as a "Safe Third Country" for Greece

17 Oct 2015

A “safe third country” describes a country that it safe for asylum seekers of nationalities other than that of this country. The ESI proposal is based on the assumption that Turkey is a safe third country for asylum-seekers from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and other countries, so that Greece could return them to Turkey without jeopardising their rights and safety. This would quickly reduce the number of boats crossing the Aegean as the dangerous passage would become pointless – everybody reaching Greece would be returned back to Turkey.