New TPQ - Fresh thoughts on the Balkans

Today the International Commission on the Balkans, chaired by Guliano Amato and including among its members Carl Bildt, Jean-Luc Dehaene, Kemal Dervis, Mircea Geoana, Kiro Gligorov, Ilir Meta, Janez Potocnik, Goran Svilanovic, Richard von Weizsäcker and others, has issued its report The Balkans in Europe's Future. It is an excellent report that deserves to be read as widely as possible.

The Commission argues that the Western Balkans are today "as close to failure as to success". The whole region needs to be moved "from the stage of protectorates and weak states to the stage of EU accession" or risks turning into the black hole of Europe. This calls for a "bold strategy for accession that could encompass all Balkan countries as new members within the next decade". "The real choice the EU is facing in the Balkans is: Enlargement or Empire", with the latter "a political embarrassment for the European project."

The Commission recommends to develop a 'member-state building' strategy in the Balkans and suggests an EU-Balkan summit in 2006 to "present all Balkan countries with their accession road maps". It calls for dismantling the existing international protectorates: "The talks in Bosnia convinced us that the OHR has outlived its usefulness. What Bosnia needs is an EU accession framework that will drive the constitutional debate in the country." Ten years since the Dayton Accords "the time has come to jettison the Bonn Powers". This would make room for "a domestic process of incremental constitutional change starting from the present reality of Bosnia's federal system of government."

In Kosovo a shift should be made during 2005 and 2006 to a situation where Kosovo would be treated "as independent but not as a sovereign state", and "all functions of a normal government that are currently performed by UNMIK or KFOR should be transferred to the government of Kosovo." The Commission also suggests to exclude the partition of Kosovo.

ESI hopes that this report will contribute to the much needed debate on EU strategies towards the region.

Instrument of Pre-accession

One of the most obvious signs how much the European Union believes in the European future of the Western Balkans will be the shape of the new regulation on EU assistance for the Balkans in the period 2007-2013. Present drafts still suggest to make a sharp distinction between the EU instruments available to candidates and those available to potential candidates, widening rather than closing the gap within the region (for background, see the recent ESI report on IPA and Member State building in South Eastern Europe).

The debate in EU circles over the shape of the IPA regulation continues, with discussions in April in COREPER and COWEB on the issue. A recent article in IWPR provides one perspective on the state of this debate.

Supported by OSI, ESI analysts continue to meet with foreign ministries in EU member states and with politicians in the region to present the case for a change in the IPA regulation and for an accelerated process of EU member state building in the region.

ESI and Turkish Policy Quarterly

We are glad to present to our readers the latest set of articles from Turkish Policy Quarterly, edited by ESI Turkey analyst Nigar Göksel. This Spring 2005 edition of TPQ is sure to provoke debate, looking at the recent downward spiral in relations between the US and Turkey.

It includes an interview with Richard Perle, and articles by Mehmet Dulger, the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Turkish Parliament, Mark Parris, the former US ambassador to Turkey, and by numerous other distinguished experts.

The next editions will look at the role of Turkey and the relationship between democratization and security in the Middle East and at policies and instruments to deal with the vast regional disparities inside Turkey as part of its process of pre-accession.

Best regards