The Adriatic push for enlargement. A view from Paris and Brussels

Kotor – View from St. Ivan’s Fortress, Montenegro

Tirana – Bulevardi Deshmoret e Kombit, Albania
Are Montenegro and Albania leading a new Adriatic push for EU enlargement in the Balkans in the coming months?

Montenegro is actively considering when to apply for EU membership and is likely to do so as early as May or June this year.  The leader of the Albanian opposition, Edi Rama, has urged the Albanian government in a speech in Brussels this week to prepare such an application for September, offering the support of the opposition.  Bosnia might well submit an application this year as well, a senior Bosnian official told ESI in Paris a few days ago.  And Serbia, ESI has been told by the head of the Serbian Directorate for European integration, has been preparing to submit its application for EU membership for many years, only waiting for the signature of its Stabilisation and Association Agreement to proceed.

In recent days ESI asked leading Europeanizers, officials promoting the EU agenda in Montenegro, Albania, Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Serbia, about their plans for 2008. Their responses suggest that it is likely that this year all Western Balkan states who have not done so already will formally apply to become candidates to join the EU, under the Slovenian or under the French EU presidencies.

Some EU member states might find this a surprising development.  However, this also offers the EU an opportunity to reaffirm European influence and secure stability at a moment when developments in Kosovo, Serbia and Macedonia are posing a potentially very serious threat to a successful EU common foreign policy in the Balkans.

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Gordana Djurovic on Montenegro’s path into the EU. © ESI

The Deputy Prime Minister of Montenegro, Gordana Djurovic told her colleagues from the other Balkan countries at an ESI event in Paris on 17 April that “the month of May is a nice time” for submitting an application for membership:

“Our European road is quite clear.  Political and economic stability and good economic trends support the process. There is a strong political and national consensus regarding integration.  So why not try to follow the reform process with the opening of new phase of integration?”

She notes that Montenegro will not be discouraged by signals from EU member states possibly urging it to slow down its progress:

“Becoming an EU member is not one act – it is a process. We talk about a very early phase.  To submit the application is just to keep the EU door open for us.  We will work hard after the decision.”

“We are now in an intensive process of communication. We have tried to share with our colleagues from EU member states our proposal, to explain our arguments and why we think it is the right time to submit an application.  … Of course we have received some messages from the Slovenian side during their presidency. I am responsible for coordinating the European integration process in our Government.  After all this communication, which will be finished at the end of April, I will write a paper and advise our political actors to decide about submitting the application as soon as possible.”

“In a constructive dialogue with EU member states during the past two months we tried to explain that time is also very valuable. Not only because of economic reasons but also because of political reasons.  We tried to explain that, from our perspective, two years is quite a long period.  We can finish a lot of European tasks in the meantime if we are allowed to continue …”

Edi Rama (Mayor of Tirana)

Edi Rama (Mayor of Tirana)

At another event in Brussels a few days later the leader of the Albanian opposition, Edi Rama, launched an appeal to the Albanian government to follow in the footsteps of Montenegro:

“Thanks to the fact that we have created a climate of cooperation, with the focus on NATO integration, we succeeded to come out with a very important result: the invitation to join NATO.  On the other hand we realised the importance of conditionalities in this process, making the Albanian political class, the Albanian parliament, the Albanian government, aware of their own roles. I think from this experience of getting together, fulfilling our duties concerning justice reform and electoral reform, going together towards an objective, showing the will to find common ground as in all mature democratic countries, we have realized – and this is both my personal, but also a common conviction among the opposition – that we can do much more also in the EU integration process”

“So, I would like very much to make clear that we have enough reason to build upon this positive momentum reached by the invitation for NATO, and to go ahead with a new challenge of Europeanisation.  This should really become the key word everywhere, in the country, but I very much believe also in the region. … This is not about favours, it is about real conditionality, which I think is very helpful to give a new push to the process of EU integration. In that respect, as the leader of the opposition, I believe that it is vital for the Albanian government to submit an application for EU membership by this autumn, September at the least. This is of course a sovereign decision, as it is a sovereign decision by the EU how to react. I strongly believe that this will really give us the opportunity to make this important re-assessment.”

“At the end of the day democracy is about how you disagree with each other. And the way of disagreeing gives quality or not to democratic life. We will continue to strongly disagree on domestic issues, but we will continue to push, as opposition, the government to take the risk, to be courageous and to go ahead with this application submission.”

Osman Topcagic

Osman Topcagic, the head of the Directorate of European integration, told ESI in Paris that Bosnia also needed to define for itself an ambitious objective:

“More Europe in the region means more stability, more economic prosperity more jobs – more employment that’s what we also need, so that is good. …

“What we have as our goal and officially defined in Parliament is to get candidate status by 2010. That would mean applying this year, so we still have not decided when exactly.  Will it be during the Slovenian presidency, or in the second half of this year during the French presidency? I think we need to apply this year. We need to show good results, initial results in implementing SAA. To show that we have structures, we have good understanding of the Agreement, and there must be political will. That really is present in Bosnia-Herzegovina, all parties support the European integration process, and the public is very much in favour, 80 percent or more.  So I am confident that we will submit an application before the end of the year, and then work hard to get Candidate status by 2010. That is another phase in this process, that is more encouragement for reform processes in Bosnia Herzegovina, and we know that we need to do much more in the next stages of this process but I am confident that we can do it. Other countries in our region did it, or are doing it, and we can do it.”

In the eyes of Osman Topcagic, one of the major advantages of European integration is that the process energizes the administration of a country.  It brings new and qualified people to join the public sector:

“This is a really exciting process and many young people are attracted, I can tell you! We were recently in process of hiring 15 juniors and we had 600 applications, and it was really difficult to select the best of them.  They wanted to work with us because we had such an image. People are attracted by our work, by the process itself, they want to be part of it, knowing in that way they can gain necessary experiences, but also they can advance in their career and career development”

Tanja Miscevic

Tanja Miscevic from Serbia outlined her hopes in Paris that the deadlock in Serbia related to the EU will finally be overcome in 2008:

“Immediately when we received the famous Feasibility Study at the beginning of April back in 2005 we started thinking not only about negotiating the Stabilisation and Association Agreement but about what would be the next steps?  Immediately we reached the conclusion that the logical next step for us would be to apply for membership immediately after the signing of the Stabilisation and Association Agreement.   And when we thought about the idea, we also had to think about those things that are necessary to be prepared in order to apply immediately for membership and candidate status.

She notes how important the progress of Serbia’s neighbours is for Serbia itself:

“I am really happy because of that, because that is for us a clear sign that there is a possibility, there is a road, and according to our merits, according to fulfilling the criteria we should, we also can apply. That is not a question anymore. … But somehow we are trapped in the non-existent political consensus in Serbia, not only about European integration but also about reforms, which is in fact the same as the process of European integration.”

Neven Pelicaric

All Western Balkan Europeanisers also draw inspiration from the experience of Croatia, as explained by Neven Pelicaric, Croatia’s Assistant Minister for Europe:

“It is a sovereign decision when the country and its political leaders and its people believe they are ready. It is up to them to set the timing. … We have been able to answer to 4,894 questions we have received. It took us or we were given 3.5 months to do so. There were of course some subsequent questions asked for clarification. And at the parliamentary session in Strasbourg in April 2004 we did receive a positive opinion (avis). Right up to the very last moment we were not sure, we knew it would be positive, but we were not sure if it was it was going to be conditional or not.”

“The Commissioner at the time, Chris Patten, was reading the recommendation and said “the Commission thereby recommends that Croatia be given Candidature status” – he moved his glasses up and looked up to the gallery and said “full stop”.  That meant it was not going to be conditional and of course we were very happy about that”

“It looks like our process is now moving, and we see stronger activity in the working group for enlargement, in the Commission as well … . If everything goes well, we will move quicker in the French presidency, where we hope to open most, if not all of the chapters and close as many chapters as possible, for which we will be able to fulfill the conditions”

 

Video interviews

ESI took three top policy makers Osman Topcagic, Director for European integration for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Tanja Miscevic, his counterpart from Serbia, and Neven Pelicaric, Croatia’s Assistant Minister for Europe to a café by the Pompidou Centre to talk through their EU integration strategies. Here you can listen to their assessments.

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Neven Pelicarić (Croatia), Osman Topčagić (Bosnia), and Tanja Miščević (Serbia) on how their countries prepare for EU accession. © ESI

Gordana Djurović is Montenegro’s Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration. She was the head of the negotiating team for negotiations on the Stabilization and Association Process, which was successfully completed with the signing of the agreement (SAA) on 15 October 2007. In the previous Government she was the Minister for International Economic Relations from February 2004 to October 2006. She is a Professor at the Faculty of Economics in Podgorica, where she teaches economic development, international economic relations and regional economics. She is also the head of post-graduate studies in European economic integration. Gordana Djurović is the author of more than fifty articles and a number of academic papers on economic development and European integration. Gordana Djurović obtained her Masters degree in 1991 at the Faculty of Economics in Podgorica, and in 1994 she obtained her PhD in the field of economic development planning in transition at the same Faculty.

Tanja Miščević is Director of the Serbian European Integration Office in Belgrade. Since 2001, she has also been the Director of the Department of European Studies of the G17 Institute in Belgrade. She initiated and organised the first programmes for training of civil servants on the functioning of the EU – the ABC of the European Union. Tanja Miščević has also lectured widely; as a Visiting Professor at the University of Bonn, at the Centre for European Integration, at the Diplomatic Academy of the Croatian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Montenegro in Podgorica. She also teaches EU Accession Policy at the Postgraduate Studies Centre at the Faculty of Political Sciences (FPS) in Belgrade, where she was also awarded her Ph.D.

Neven Pelicarić is Assistant Minister at the Croatian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration. He was previously Political Director – Division for Europe and the European Union, and from 2005-2006 he served as Ambassador-at-large. He was head of the Department for EU (Political) from 2004-2005. Ambassador Pelicarić is the head of the Working Group for Chapter XXXI on “Common Foreign, and Security Policy” as part of the EU accession process. He is co-editor of the book Security Sector Reform in South East Europe – from a Necessary Remedy to a Global Concept.

Osman Topčagić is the Director of the Directorate for European Integration of Bosnia-Herzegovina. He is the most senior civil servant in charge of European integration in Sarajevo. From 2002 to 2003, Osman Topčagić was Minister-Counsellor at the Mission of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the EU and to NATO in Brussels. He has also served as Ambassador of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the United Kingdom. Read more about Osman Topčagić in ESI’s portrait section.

Talk in Ankara – METU and Turkish Foreign Ministry – Presentation on “The State of the Balkans “

I was invited to speak on the Balkans at the “Austria and Turkey’s Neighbourhood Workshop” in Ankara on 21 April 2008. H.E Ali Babacan, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey and H.E Ursula Plassnik, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Austria were the keynote speaker of the seminar. Guests among my panel included Mr T. Schnoll, Head of Western Balkans Unit (AFM), Professor Turkes from METU, Ms Batur from the Daily Sabah and Ambassador Aksoy.

Ankara - Ataturk Mausoleum

Talk in Paris – Club Grande Europe – “Learning from Bulgaria”

In the seminar entitled “A European failure or European miracles? Enlargement stories from Bulgaria and Romania”, I gave a detailed analysis on the case of Bulgaria and its adhesion to the European Union, while my colleague Kristof Bender, Senior Analyst at ESI talked about the case of Romania. The presentation was followed by comments from Francois Frison-Roche, Romanian and Bulgarian Specialist of CNRS and the University of Paris.

Paris
If you are interested in the issues, I recommend the following:
On Romania:
And then, of course, there are two ESI documentary films on these subjects:

What Giuliano Amato told me in Rome

I travelled to Rome to meet Giuliano Amato, Italian Interior Minister, former Italian Prime minister and head of the International Commission on the Balkans until 2006.  Since he spoke in English, and the whole interview is recorded, you can listen to one of Europe’s leading statesman with an interest in the region: why Montenegro can be taken for granted; why there is a need for a bold vision: that all the Balkans will join the EU by 2014; how Tirana has changed; and how fears of illegal migration feed into enlargement fatigue.

You find the whole interview here:

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Giuliano Amato on European Enlargement. © 2008 pre tv. All rights reserved.

Sleepless in Bucharest – Talking Balkans in Vienna

It was a stressful trip to Vienna, coming here straight from the Bucharest Nato summit, where I had slept through the unique chance of attending an early morning lecture by George Bush (having worked all night to complete and send out a discussion paper on Turkey’s Dark Side early in the morning). I sometimes enjoy conferences and among such events this Bucharest jamboree – a big conference organised by GMF always in parallel to the annual Nato summit – was certainly noteworthy for the prominence of its speakers. Then again, it helps having slept, or even the most interesting event can turn into a painful exercise of trying to stay awake (the worst thing about this event was the cameras zooming in on the audience and displaying their faces on huge screens hung up next to the speakers – this was NOT a conference that was kind to a secret nap in the last row),

Thus I noticed, on the way back from Bucharest, before dozing off on the plane, that there were really only three things that I took away from this rich event: I had had coffee with an old friend from Berlin, sneaking out of the conference centre (and skipping most of the session with the Afghan president). I had another occasion to marvel at Nato’s security operation, essentially closing off most of the streets in the Romanian capital so that guests were taken on empty roads around town. And I had a short but interesting chat with Wolfgang Ischinger, the Kosovo negotiator and German ambassador to London, sharing a taxi with him on the way to the airport. Efficient networking this was not …

My mood was not helped by the fact that my father had been hospitalised in Vienna due to a heart problem, which looked complicated, and had just been operated. But then in fact there was another urgent reason to come to Vienna, for what would otherwise have been a joyful occasion: to present – for the first time – the whole Balkanexpress – Return to Europe documentary film project to a broader audience.

The event, hosted by ORF, was well organised by Erste Foundation. Austrian Chancellor Alfred Gusenbauer turned up, as did the CEOs of Erste Bank, OMV (the Austrian oil company), the Austrian National Broadcaster ORF and many others – a who-is-who of people interested in and involved in SEE in Vienna. The event became even more colourful as a result of the many guests from the region, including many members of the generation of Balkan change-lovers whom we featured in our films (you can see pictures of the event and who actually came here)

I delivered my introductory presentation. I had been uncertain until the last moment whether the trick of embedding video clips from the films into a power point presentation would actually work: it would be embarrassing to stand on a podium in front of all these august Austrians, having to improvise because the technology mixes up clips or the sound cannot be heared.  I had prepared some lines to laugh away any mishap or confusion.  But, when everything worked, I noted the usefulness of strong images. It is so much easier to move people emotionally when there is a moving picture.

Following the event, on the afternoon of the second day, I gave a little interview (see below). There is also a nice little trailer that sums up the whole atmosphere nicely.

Now we can only hope that TV audiences will also want to see the films. And that the films will soon be available also in English. I will keep you informed where and when you will be able to see them!

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Balkan Express – Talking Balkans – Symposium in Vienna on 3-4 April 2008 © 2008 ERSTE Foundation/Igor Bararon. All rights reserved.
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Balkan Express – Talking Balkans – Symposium in Vienna on 3-4 April 2008. Interview with Gerald Knaus. © 2008 ERSTE Foundation/Igor Bararon. All rights reserved.

Talk in Vienna – Radio Kulturhaus (ORF) – “International symposium Talking Balkans”

I gave a presentation during the international symposium “Return to Europe – Talking Balkans”, organised by ERSTE Foundation and ORF RadioKulturhaus, the first season of the TV documentary “Balkan Express” was announced. This film series will be broadcast on 3sat (starting 27 April 2008) and ORF (autumn 2008).

It is based on ESI research and features many places, topics and people that have been subject of ESI reports. The stories were developed in cooperation with ESI analysts.

International representatives of politics, culture, business and science discussed the “Balkan concept” on 3 – 4 April 2008. In addition to exclusive clips from the documentary series, the programme also featured examples of video art from the region.

Speakers included, among others, Alfred Gusenbauer (Federal Chancellor of Austria), Erhard Busek (Special Coordinator, Stability Pact, Austria), Slavenka Drakulic (author, Croatia), Migjen Kelmendi (Journalist, Kosovo), Ivan Krastev (Political scientist, Centre for Liberal Strategies, Bulgaria), Tim Judah (journalist, BBC, The Economist, UK), Ivan Vejvoda (Executive Director, Balkan Trust for Democracy, Serbia), Alida Vracic (Director, Populari, Bosnia & Herzegovina), and Erion Veliaj (ESI Analyst, Albania).

More information on the participants can be found at the ERSTE Foundation’s website. Austrian quality daily Der Standard published an eight-page supplement on the documentary series.

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101 on the Turkish deep state – Nokta (Istanbul)

Umit Kardas welcomes my colleague Ekrem and me in his office just off the main pedestrian street in the busy Beyoglu quarter of Istanbul.

The office is filled with books, a new version of the Turkish Penal Code, reformed in 2004, lies on the desk. Kardas smiles and offers us two glasses of Turkish tea. He is a mild-manner and very polite man. It is only when I begin to ask questions about the current political situation in Turkey that his smile disappears.

No wonder: Kardas knows more than most about anti-democratic attitudes within parts of the Turkish state administration.

Kardas served as a military judge during some of the worst periods in Turkey’s war against the PKK in South East Anatolia. There was a time, he noted, when most suspects brought to his courtroom bore signs of torture. He resigned. He has since turned into one of the best informed critics of official Turkish nationalism.

But has the situation regarding torture not changed fundamentally since the 1990s, I ask him?

“There is progress, yes, and there is less torture today. But this progress could be reversed if the general situation develops in the wrong way. Then there could even be a return to torture”

What would cause such a reversal?

“Turkey is not a country that has so far turned into a functioning democracy and the supremacy of the rule of law. A state based on the rule of law has not come into being. There is an ongoing struggle between the government and the Turkish armed forces. …

Now Turkey has come to a critical point. Either Turkey will stick with the status quo, close itself and turn into an anti-democratic, authoritarian country; or prodemocratic forces pushing for an opening of society, for a withdrawal of generals from politics, for an enlargement of civil liberties will prevail. Based on what I know I am a pessimist, but based on my desires I am an optimist.”

Umit Kardas

Umit Kardas

He goes on:

“The military is constantly interfering in politics, writing declarations, trying to influence politics. In a democratic country the government would send these generals into retirement. According to Turkish laws it is forbidden for members of the armed forces to interfere in politics.”

“Since 1980 the military has become used to exercising power which it now does not want to abandon. So on the one hand it acts like a political party, and on the other hand it does not run in elections, is not exposed to control and criticism but nevertheless is part of the government.”

“There is no change in mentality and basic structures. At least some things that one could not talk about in the past are now discussed openly. But this opening is not without risk as we see in the case of Nokta, or Semdinli.”

Nokta, Semdinli: for Kardas both of these events became symbols in recent years that forces of authoritarian nationalism have not yet been defeated in Turkey.

Semdinli 

Semdinli is a place in the mainly Kurdish South East of the country near the border with Iraq and Iran.

On 9 November 2005 there was a bomb attack on a bookstore. One person died. The Van Third Criminal Court was later to decide that two noncommissioned officers were guilty of the crime. They were both captured on the spot by a furious crowd. On June 19 2006 the two noncommissioned officers, Ali Kaya and Özcan İldeniz, were found guilty and sentenced to serve 39 years and 10 days in prison.

Guns found in car in Semdinli

The court also noted that the group responsible could not have been set up or led by the noncommissioned officers and that they could not have carried out the act without the tacit approval, protection and involvement of more senior officers.

However, when Van Prosecutor Ferhat Sarıkaya implicated in his indictment (the current chief of general staff) General Yaşar Büyükanıt, together with some other top commanders, he found himself disbarred by a panel of judges set up by the Supreme Board of Judges and Public prosecutors. He lost both his job and his license as a lawyer.

Later the Semdinli case was transferred to a military court. This military court then released the two noncommissioned officers (NCOs) pending the outcome of the trial.

For more in the press go here:

http://www.bianet.org/english/kategori/english/101806/semdinli-trial-in-military-court

or

http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/yazarDetay.do?haberno=34222

Nokta

In March 2007 the weekly magazine Nokta published an article about a confidential list by the Turkish military blacklisting journalists and press organs, a leaked report prepared by the Office of the Chief of General Staff categorizing journalists as “trustworthy” (pro military) and “untrustworthy” (anti military). While the military acknowledged the existence of such a list, they declared that the version published by Nokta was “only a draft”.

Later that same month Nokta published excerpts of a diary, alleged to have been written by admiral Özden Örnek, a former navy commander. The diary entries gave details of two plans for a military coup, discussed by the commanders of the army, navy and the air force, together with the gendarmerie chief, and aiming to overthrow the AK Party government in 2004.

Following these publications, the magazines’ offices were raided by the police in a three-day operation. Subsequently, the owner of the magazine discontinued its publication.

For Kardas both cases sent strong and negative messages to the Turkish public: the outcome of the Semdinli case discouraged prosecutors; “Who will dare to take on the military again in the near future?”, he wonders. And the outcome of the Nokta case discourages the press. There is a degree of self-censorship, he worries, and the taboos, what one reports on and what one remains silent about, have been reinforced.

It is a sombre picture of Turkish society, and a disheartening analysis of the balance of power between the forces struggling for control of the country that Kardas has to offer. And it feels strange to step out of the house where his office is into the bright sun on Istiklal street on such a bright spring day, to pass Gloria Jeans and Starbucks cafes and then to head for the bookshops in the centre of the city.

And yet, as long as there are people like Kardas liberalism and the European vision will remain alive in Turkey.

Kardas, in the meantime, returns to his job: preparing the defence of the former editor of Nokta, who showed courage when others did not, in a Turkish court.